Following slight growth in October, the mood among companies in the German print and media industry deteriorated in November 2024. The business climate index determined by the BVDM recorded a seasonally and calendar-adjusted decline of 1.4 per cent compared to the previous month. Sentiment on company floors regarding current and future business development deteriorated slightly. The outcome of the US elections and the unclear political situation following the end of the ‘traffic light’ government are preventing business uncertainty from easing.
In November, the business situation in the printing industry deteriorated compared to the previous month. The seasonally and calendar-adjusted business situation index recorded a decline of around -1.3 per cent compared to the previous month, confirming the ongoing sideways movement over the course of the year following the previous month’s growth. With a value of 83.3 points, the index is roughly at the same level as in July and around 1.6 per cent above the same month of the previous year. Around 11 per cent of respondents rated the current business situation as positive. Around 59 per cent gave a neutral assessment, while around 30 per cent rated the business situation negatively. At around -54 percentage points, the balance of the assessment of the order situation in November was roughly at the same level as the annual average and continues to indicate a visible lack of orders among companies. This affects almost all sectors to varying degrees. While the order situation in commercial printing is slightly more positive than the industry average with a balance of -38 percentage points, there is a significant downturn in packaging and label printing with a balance of around -71 percentage points in November. However, the proportion of companies on short-time work remains at a low level, falling from 6 per cent in the previous year to around 2 per cent.
Expectations regarding the development of the business situation for the next six months show a continued decrease in the intensity of the decline that was already observed in the previous month. At 93.5 points, the seasonally and calendar-adjusted index recorded a decrease of around 1.6 per cent compared to the previous month. This puts the index at around the same level as the previous year. Around 60 per cent of companies forecast that the business situation will remain the same, while around 2 per cent expect it to improve and around 38 per cent expect it to deteriorate. The increasing uncertainty about the potential implications of the US elections and the end of the ‘traffic light’ government for Germany’s economic development is likely to play a role here, as are the current forecasts regarding overall economic trends over the next six months. Accordingly, expectations regarding employment trends in companies remain negative with a balance of around -28 percentage points.
BVDM
The Bundesverband Druck und Medien e. V. (bvdm) is the umbrella organisation of the German printing industry. As an employers’ organisation, political business association and technical trade association, it represents the positions and objectives of the printing industry vis-à-vis politicians, administration, trade unions and the supplier industry. The bvdm is supported by eight regional associations. Internationally, it is organised through its membership of Intergraf and FESPA. The printing industry currently comprises around 6,500 predominantly small and medium-sized companies with more than 106,000 employees subject to social security contributions.
