Following the slight increase in March, the seasonally and calendar-adjusted business climate in the German print and media industry rose sharply in April 2024. The rise was driven by a moderate increase in the current business situation assessment and a significantly less pessimistic business outlook for the next six months. Adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects, the business climate index calculated by the German Printing and Media Industries Federation was around 11.0 per cent higher than the previous month’s figure. At 92.2 points, the index in April was still around 2.3 per cent below the previous year’s level despite the increase.
In April 2024, the decision-makers at printing and media companies surveyed by the ifo Institute assessed their current business situation more positively than in the previous month. The assessment of developments in the coming months also improved significantly. The characteristics of the current and expected business situation determine the development of the business climate, which is a good leading indicator for production development in the print and media industry.
In April 2024, the seasonally and calendar-adjusted business situation index recorded an increase of 3.8 per cent compared to February and thus showed a positive trend for the second month in a row following the sharp decline in February. Nevertheless, at 82.5 points, the index was still around 1.6 per cent below the level at the start of 2024 and around 10.8 per cent below the corresponding figure from the previous year. In April, around 7 per cent of the company managers surveyed in the printing industry rated their current business situation as positive. 56 per cent rated their situation as neutral, while 38 per cent gave a negative assessment. At -31 percentage points, the balance thus remains clearly negative and was 20.5 percentage points below the corresponding figure for the previous year. The majority of companies (69 per cent) complained about production restrictions in April. With a share of 52 per cent, the lack of orders continued to be the biggest obstacle to production. The shortage of skilled labour also remained relevant at 32 per cent, whereas material bottlenecks were no longer a significant factor (5 per cent).
Expectations regarding the development of the business situation over the next 6 months rose sharply in April compared to the previous month. At 103.1 points, the seasonally and calendar-adjusted index was around 18.8% above the previous month’s level and thus around 6.9% above the value from April 2023. However, this development must be viewed in context, as the increase compared to the previous month was primarily caused by a decline in negative business prospects (-22 percentage points) and not by an increase in positive expectations (+2 percentage points). With regard to the other sector indicators, this development should therefore also be seen as an indicator of a normalisation of the negative trend of the last two years rather than a sign of an imminent recovery.
BVDM
The Bundesverband Druck und Medien e. V. (bvdm) is the umbrella organisation of the German printing industry. As an employers’ organisation, political trade association and technical trade association, it represents the positions and objectives of the printing industry vis-à-vis politicians, administration, trade unions and the supplier industry. The bvdm is supported by eight regional associations. Internationally, it is organised through its membership of Intergraf and FESPA. The printing industry currently comprises around 6,900 predominantly small and medium-sized companies with more than 110,000 employees subject to social security contributions.
